Macworld and Rumors

While I'm on the topic of Apple, I'd like to go over all of the rumors about what Mac/ iPhone/ Portable Device Apple will introduce at Macworld on Jan. 15th.

Computers:

1. A Touch-screened tablet-type computer, essentially an iPhone on steroids
Chance: 1:1 Apple has a runaway success in the iPhone, but Tablets have never been strong sellers. Then again, neither were smartphones. Yet a tablet would cannibalize iPhone sales.

2. A consumer-Level Minitower, possibly to replace the long-in-the-tooth Mac Mini.
Chance: 1:1 Apple has allowed the mac Mini to stagnate, with few upgrades over its lifetime, and is has seen a consequent decline in sales. Apple was hailed for it's jump into the Low-end computer market, but it ended up as a draw, where people would go to an Apple Store to buy a Mini, and would leave with the low-end iMac.

3. An ultraportable notebook, with a 12-inch LED backlit screen.
Chance: 2:1 This rumor has been floating around for a while, ever since Apple killed off the 12-inch Powerbook in January of 2005. The 12-incher had never been the strongest seller, but it was always a steady revenue stream. In fact, a blackish-gray aluminum notebook was spotted being toted around the Apple campus in California.

4. Anything Else.
Chance: 1:3 Apple's computer line is relatively new, with the oldest product (the MacBook) being revamped less than a year ago. All of their products are new and selling well. Apple doesn't need a huge amount of innovation in either the desktop or laptop categories. I would predict a divergence of the iMac line in a few years, with a professional version headed upmarket and a consumer version dipping below $1000.

Portable Devices:

1. iPhone Mini/Nano, essentially, a stripped down iPhone of some sort.
Chance: 1:4 Apple, again, would not cannibalize sales of it's wonder child, and there would have to be some sort of differentiation between the two, but it would be artificially inserted. It could jeopardize Apple's relationship with AT&T.

2. Unlocked iPhones: 1:∞ Apple has a contractual obligation in 5 countries not to do this. It can't no matter how much we want it.

3. Hard-Drive based iPod Touch.
Chances: 1:3 at Macworld, 2:1 in September. Apple almost always announces new iPods in September, and would never kill a product so soon after introducing it.

4. New radio devices/stereos.
Chances: 1:2 at Macworld, 4:1 from other vendors. Apple has tried this before, and neither the Radio Remote, nor the HiFi have sold well. If they combine the two, and include HD Radio, as well as iTunes Tagging, then it might have a chance. Other vendors have announced that they are developing their own radios for this technology. Alpine has just announced new radios that contain this technology. The are the first company to do so.

5. Anything else.
Chance: 3:1 Apple has always sprung new and/or unexpected products at Macworld. it's usually a surprise. But with all of the leaks coming fro Apple, this could turn out to be a very boring Macworld.